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With some German property developers filing for insolvency, construction activity has dropped over a third from a year ago. That bleak outlook was despite the government recently announcing a 45 billion euro ($47 billion) support package for the property sector and measures to encourage house building, including tax incentives. With overall economic activity expected to remain weak over the coming quarters, it could take a while for the property sector to recover. The euro zone's commercial property sector could also struggle for years, posing a threat to the banks and investors who financed it, the ECB said recently. The median view of 12 property experts forecast average home rental prices to rise 4.0% or more until 2026.

Persons: Lisi Niesner, Sebastian Schnejdar, Carsten Brzeski, Indradip Ghosh, Purujit Arun, Rahul Trivedi, Sarupya Ganguly, Ross Finley, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, ING, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, BENGALURU

☆ Japan's Nikkei seen rising to 35,000 by mid-2024 on earnings boost: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A man looks at an electric board displaying the Nikkei stock average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan June 14, 2023. The median forecast for the Nikkei's level in mid-2024 was 35,000, with responses ranging from 31,143 to 39,500, the Reuters poll of 10 stocks strategists taken Nov. 10-20 showed. Japan's equity benchmark started this week by pushing to its highest level since March 1990 at 33,853.46 following a three-week winning streak. That would mean some stagnation for equities in the latter half of next year, with the Nikkei still stuck at 35,000 at year-end, according to the median poll response. "35,000 looks to be about the level where Nikkei gains line up with the timing of the BOJ getting rid of negative interest rate policy," Sycamore said.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Masayuki Kichikawa, IG's, Tony Sycamore, Sycamore, Kevin Buckland, Junko Fujita, Noriyuki, Rahul Trivedi, Pranoy, Alex Richardson Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Federal, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, IG's Sydney

☆ S&P 500 to see small gain in 2024 as US economic risks rise - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 is up about 18% for 2023 to date. WFII sees the S&P 500 ending next year between 4,600 and 4,800. Geopolitical problems are among other risks to the market heading into 2024, strategists said, with investors closely watching the war between Israel and Hamas militants in Gaza. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth for 2023 is estimated at 2.3% after a weak first half of the year, according to LSEG data. The S&P 500 index's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is now at 19.1, up from 17 at the end of 2022 and its long-term average of about 16, based on LSEG data.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Paul Christopher, WFII, CME's, Goldman, Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls & Snyder, Dow, Caroline Valetkevitch, Chuck Mikolajczak, Sinead Carew, Stephen Culp, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Sarupya Ganguly, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reuters, Wall, Federal, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, U.S, Ingalls &, Dow, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, Israel, Gaza, New York, Monday's, Bengaluru

Money market traders are betting September's hike was the last, with almost 90 basis points of rate cuts priced by the end of 2024. European shares underperforming their U.S. counterparts was a common expectation amongst the survey's European respondents as the robust American economy looks more likely to achieve a 'soft landing' than Europe. European shares are much cheaper than those in the U.S., possibly reflecting the worse economic outlook. The STOXX Europe 600 trades at over 12 times 12-month forward earnings, a 35.6% discount to the S&P 500 (.SPX). "Still, as the broader economic slowdown takes hold of the continent's markets, we expect to see a rather challenging second half of 2024."

Persons: Chris Beauchamp, Thomas Monteiro, Germany's DAX, Fiona Cincotta, Cincotta, Investing.com's Monteiro, Monteiro, Samuel Indyk, Danilo Masoni, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Sarupya Ganguly, Jason Neely Organizations: IG, European Central Bank, ECB, Investing.com, FTSE, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Europe, Germany, riskier, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Fed done hiking rates, but higher for longer message gaining traction
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Several Fed officials have indicated that may work as a substitute to further rate rises, while still stressing rates will remain higher for longer. Over 80% of economists, 91 of 111, had no rate cut in their forecast until at least the second quarter of next year. That 55% majority slipped from over 70% in a September poll, extending a trend of rate cut calls being pushed to later. As recently as July, a majority of economists polled said the Fed would start cutting by end-March. All but two of 28 respondents to an extra question said the bigger risk was the first rate cut comes later than they expect.

Persons: Brett Ryan, Jerome Powell, it's, Lawrence Werther, Prerana Bhat, Rahul Trivedi, Sarupya Ganguly, Ross Finley, Jonathan Cable Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters, Fed, Deutsche Bank, Economic, of New, Daiwa, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, of New York

☆ Fed to leave rates unchanged on Sept. 20; cut unlikely before Q2 2024: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"While there has been meaningful progress to date on inflation ... the Fed will not be able to take this for granted." Around 70% of those respondents, 62 of 87, had at least one rate cut by the end of next June. Still, all but five of 28 respondents to an extra question said the bigger risk was that the first Fed cut would come later than they currently forecast. A serious economic downturn could justify an earlier rate cut, but that is looking less likely. The economy was expected to expand by 2.0% this year and 0.9% in 2024, according to the poll.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Brett Ryan, Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi's Hollenhorst, Prerana Bhat, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Shaloo, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, Reuters, Deutsche Bank, Consumer, Index, Citi, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

☆ Fed to leave rates unchanged on Sept. 20; cut unlikely before Q2 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"While there has been meaningful progress to date on inflation ... the Fed will not be able to take this for granted." Only one said the Fed would cut rates this year. Around 70% of those respondents, 62 of 87, had at least one rate cut by the end of next June. Still, all but five of 28 respondents to an extra question said the bigger risk was that the first Fed cut would come later than they currently forecast. A serious economic downturn could justify an earlier rate cut, but that is looking less likely.

☆ British home prices to fall 4% in 2023 as borrowing costs bite: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The most pessimistic forecast was for a 10% fall, despite consumer prices expected to rise 7.5% this year, according to a separate Reuters poll. They were expected to flatline in 2024 and rise a little over 3% the year after, little changed from the previous poll. "The London housing market ebbs and flows, yet is there really such a thing as a 'London property market' nowadays?" RENTAL STRESSThose unable or unwilling to make it onto the property ladder will feel the pinch from surging rental costs. Private rental prices paid by tenants in Britain rose 5.3% in the 12 months to July, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Persons: Stefan Wermuth, BoE, Michael McGill, Zoopla, Russell Quirk, Aneisha Beveridge, Jonathan Cable, Mumal Rathore, Rahul Trivedi, Purujit, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of England, Office, National Statistics, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Kensington, Mayfair, Barking, Dagenham

Despite that, the latest Reuters poll narrowly showed Bank Rate peaking at 5.50%, down from 5.75% predicted in July. All but one of 62 economists in the Aug. 16-23 poll expected Bank Rate to go up 25 basis points to 5.50% next month. The medians showed Bank Rate remaining on hold after September's hike until Q3 next year, though a significant minority - 47% or 29 of 62 economists - estimated a higher peak. That is a flip from a July poll when a slim majority, 51% or 31 of 61 participants, predicted Bank Rate at 5.75% or more by year-end. The wider poll showed inflation averaging 6.8% and 4.7% this quarter and next.

Persons: Luke MacGregor, BoE, James Smith, Simon Wells, Shaloo Shrivastava, Jonathan Cable, Mumal Rathore, Rahul Trivedi, Purujit Arun, Ross Finley, John Stonestreet Organizations: of, REUTERS, Bank of England, Reuters, ING, Reserve, European Central Bank, HSBC, Thomson Locations: of England, London, BRITAIN, BENGALURU, LONDON, Western Europe

☆ Bank of England rates set to peak at 5.75% by year-end: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BENGALURU, July 25 (Reuters) - The Bank of England will raise its Bank Rate by a quarter-point to 5.25% on August 3, making borrowing the costliest since early 2008, and hike twice more by the year-end as price pressures persist, a Reuters poll showed. While the median peak rate forecast was 5.75%, nearly half of respondents, 29 of 61, still said 5.50%, the same as a June 26 poll. As recently as a June 14 poll, the consensus was for Bank Rate to peak at 5.00%. Predictions for Bank Rate at year-end were in a wide range. Asked where core inflation will be at year-end, nearly two thirds of respondents, 14 of 22, said slightly lower.

Persons: BoE, Bruce Kasman, Morgan, Stefan Koopman, Shaloo Shrivastava, Mumal Rathore, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Bank of England, Bank, Company, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, J.P, British

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